Oscar 2025。

又到了每年這個時候。

Very Final Oscar Predictions 2025!

咦，為甚麼最佳動畫沒有哪吒？

The Brutalist似乎感覺不錯，片長5個小時令我很想挑戰，而Adrien Brody應該有最佳男主角獎；Conclave能拿到最佳改編劇本（毫無疑問地），最佳原創劇本他就猜應該是Anora，

If Anora loses here (original screenplay), then i'll be like, uh-oh, maybe conclave is going to win picture.

最佳女演員，

We might get a huge shocker i actress this year, it could be like the moment of the night.......This is like her moment to shine for that incredible performance in "The Substance", a body horror film like those kinds of movies never wins Oscars in acting, so that would be great.

是呢，每年的Oscars 定必要有些大感動場面， 情況又有點像當年的TAR，他還說 "Micky Madison will have many more chances"。

不過也很同意留言所說，

I hate to say it, and this is specifically for the ppl saying this is Demi’s only chance (ignore this if you prefer Demi’s performance fr), but the Oscars is not a charity. I think that it should be solely based off of performance and the actors commitment to the performance not whether this is their only chance to win.

，

其實這位YouTuber的預測方法很有趣：優秀的演出當然是基本，但他還會考慮很多，例如「某某某有得到PGA但沒拿到SAG（美國演員工會獎）/BAFTA（英國電影學院獎）」，或是「如果這電影拿到A獎、卻拿不到B獎就會很不合理」「如果Z電影失落了C獎，那C獎就會是Y電影得到，而Z電影就會得到D獎」之類的計算。

又有如這最佳電影，

only one other movie has ever won PGA（美國製片人工會） DGA（美國導演工會）and WGA（美國編劇工會）, and not taken the Oscar best picture, and that was Brokeback mountain.

所以他覺得應該是Anora。